Do Germans really oppose the U.S. policy toward Iraq to the extent of the recent comment made by a German cabinet minister comparing Bush’s stance to that of a pre-war Hitler?

I think everyone pretty much thought the Hitler comment was stupid and definitely over the top – but deep inside, most Germans disdain aggressive U.S. action (looking at the country’s history, one can see why). This was clearly evident when Gerhard Schroeder, the German Chancellor, came from behind in the final weeks in the elections by riding the anti-war in Iraq campaign message to a narrow victory. It was a last second move (some say desperate) that resonated with many citizens’ lifelong reservations about military conflict.

So why did Schroeder do it?

In our opinion, Schroeder is facing a very difficult situation. German unemployment is nearly 10%, its economy (the largest in the EU) is stagnating, and companies are threatening to flee the country for cheaper eastern European countries like the Czech Republic or Hungary, where the influence of labor unions isn’t nearly as strong and taxes are not nearly as high. If these countries join the EU as planned in 2006, the situation will only get worse as labor will begin to flow more freely across borders. In many instances, it is a Catch-22. I mean, what self-respecting German would vote to give up his/her generous social benefits from the government (including the extremely attractive 6 weeks vacation)? Yet, if they don’t, their economy could quite possibly continue to wallow in recession for years to come.

Schroeder made a very political move as an act of survival: appeal to what Germans care about most in order to get elected – Iraq. He did, and he won. But now his approval ratings are below 40% as the German economy continues to slide. Stay tuned. . . .